Space Safety
The Starlink conjunction and reentry threat picture for early July 2026 presents two critical HIGH-risk events, both involving STARLINK-4621 and the defunct SL-18 R/B rocket body, with minimum range of 0.011 km and maximum collision probability of 1.0 on Jul 9, 2026 at 23:44 UTC. Beyond these critical conjunctions, six moderate-risk events are tracked involving operational or partially operational Starlink satellites, while eight satellites are predicted to reenter Earth’s atmosphere between Jul 11-14, 2026. The concentration of reentry activity within a narrow timeframe underscores ongoing challenges with managed deorbiting and end-of-life vehicle disposal in the Starlink constellation.
| Risk | Starlink Sat | Other Object | Status | Min Range (km) | Rel Speed (km/s) | Max Prob | Time of Closest Approach |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | STARLINK-4621 | SL-18 R/B | Non-operational | 0.011 | 14.173 | 1.0 | Jul 9, 23:44 UTC |
| HIGH | STARLINK-4621 | SL-18 R/B | Non-operational | 0.011 | 14.173 | 1.0 | Jul 9, 23:44 UTC |
| MODERATE | STARLINK-30464 | STARLINK-36196 | Operational | 0.048 | 10.027 | 0.1285 | Jul 4, 22:40 UTC |
| MODERATE | STARLINK-30464 | STARLINK-36196 | Operational | 0.048 | 10.027 | 0.1285 | Jul 4, 22:40 UTC |
| MODERATE | STARLINK-5106 | STARLINK-32760 | Operational | 0.049 | 10.192 | 0.1211 | Jul 11, 06:11 UTC |
| MODERATE | STARLINK-5106 | STARLINK-32760 | Operational | 0.049 | 10.192 | 0.1211 | Jul 11, 06:11 UTC |
| MODERATE | STARLINK-5400 | STARLINK-5781 | Partially Operational | 0.053 | 6.407 | 0.1203 | Jul 7, 15:32 UTC |
| MODERATE | STARLINK-5400 | STARLINK-5781 | Partially Operational | 0.053 | 6.407 | 0.1203 | Jul 7, 15:32 UTC |
| LOW | STARLINK-36967 | LEMUR-2-AFFIE-WAUWIE | Operational | 0.038 | 7.332 | 0.07328 | Jul 8, 04:03 UTC |
| LOW | STARLINK-36967 | LEMUR-2-AFFIE-WAUWIE | Operational | 0.038 | 7.332 | 0.07328 | Jul 8, 04:03 UTC |
| Satellite | NORAD ID | Predicted Decay | Window (min) | Inclination | Lat | Lon |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STARLINK-4798 | 53858 | Jul 11, 04:59 UTC | 120 | 53.2° | 14.4° | 211.4° |
| STARLINK-1707 | 46359 | Jul 11, 06:44 UTC | 120 | 53.0° | -52.2° | 238.4° |
| STARLINK-5000 | 53935 | Jul 12, 03:27 UTC | 540 | 53.2° | 53.3° | 157.8° |
| STARLINK-5032 | 53895 | Jul 12, 05:45 UTC | 540 | 53.2° | 50.1° | 181.3° |
| STARLINK-1545 | 46156 | Jul 13, 10:09 UTC | 780 | 53.0° | -5.5° | 89.5° |
| STARLINK-1784 | 46687 | Jul 14, 05:14 UTC | 1020 | 53.0° | 15.6° | 274.3° |
| STARLINK-2162 | 47748 | Jul 14, 10:11 UTC | 1200 | 53.1° | -12.4° | 192.5° |
| STARLINK-1678 | 46538 | Jul 14, 14:25 UTC | 1140 | 53.0° | -52.9° | 323.9° |
Constellation Status
There have been no changes to the Starlink constellation since the last check. The constellation currently consists of 12,472 total launched satellites, with 10,775 in orbit, 10,759 confirmed working, and 1,697 decayed.
- Total Launched: 12472
- Total On Orbit: 10775
- Total Working: 10759
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